Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae91…0f69 other 1138 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$658 (+3%) realized +$220 · open +$438
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%624W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$38
14 days+$85
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$282
tech 27% +$1,061
sports 11% −$84
culture 9% +$64
politics 6% +$5
world 4% −$109
crypto 2% +$35
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 45% -1.2%
≤30d 125 -10.0% -18.6% 60% 43% -2.1%
≤90d 320 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 51% -2.5%
all 1056 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% -8.3%
10% -22.3% 37% -17.1%
15% -29.8% 25% -25.1%
20% -36.7% 19% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$3,052
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$438
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses624 / 432
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions82
Markets (closed)1056 / 1138
History coverage236d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 17¢ 75¢ $46 $202 +$155 (+335%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 74¢ 90¢ $140 $170 +$30 (+22%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $150 $166 +$16 (+10%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $104 $123 +$19 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 84¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-2%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 97¢ $68 $90 +$22 (+32%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? No 84¢ 90¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $80 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 91¢ $54 $77 +$24 (+44%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 79¢ 84¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $46 $61 +$15 (+33%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 98¢ $12 $58 +$46 (+388%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 94¢ $42 $57 +$15 (+35%)
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+18%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 59¢ 79¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+34%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+22%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-7%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No 56¢ 63¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 18 $93 +$44 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $15 +$7 +43%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$9 +145%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $7 +$18 +245%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $57 +$5 +8%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $57 +$9 +16%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? Jun 11 $62 +$14 +22%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $7 +$2 +23%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 10 $32 −$32 -99%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$8 +150%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $61 +$37 +61%
Will Tim Cook say "Excited" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will John Ternus say "Macbook" 10+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 ev Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Will John Ternus say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 20+ times durin Jun 09 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Tim Cook say "Macbook" 10+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event Jun 09 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Tim Cook say "Apple Intelligence" 5+ times during the Apple WWDC Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $138 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 35h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 35h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1 47h
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $41 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $5 3d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 87¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,051.53 · official $3,051.55 (match) · 3219 history records