Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae93…92f3
crypto · 105 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses53 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Up 50¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Mattia Bellucci 55¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 67¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? No 87¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2 +$4 +188%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -66%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$9
sports 16% −$3
other 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 56¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 55m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $1 56m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 66¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $6 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $1 1h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans SELL Daniel Galan 36¢ $0 2h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Snigur 29¢ $0 2h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $1 2h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ $1 2h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 70¢ $1 2h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 92¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 35% -16.7%
≤30d 102 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 35% -16.7%
≤90d 102 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 35% -16.7%
all 102 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 35% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 25% -24.7%
15% -30.6% 20% -32.0%
20% -37.4% 16% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.31 · official $4.31 (match) · 257 history records