Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae94…0c03 crypto 1133 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,335 (-10%) realized −$2,335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%486W / 647L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$1,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,362
other 1% −$58
sports 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -31.5% -38.0% 40% 35% -27.5%
≤30d 36 -34.4% -40.6% 33% 31% -66.9%
≤90d 1133 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 38% -22.4%
all 1133 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 38% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 38% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 32% -29.9%
15% -41.5% 25% -36.6%
20% -47.3% 19% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses486 / 647
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1133 / 1133
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1133 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$48 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$17 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$12 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 01 $18 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $257 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $3 +$6 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $344 +$197 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $239 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $86 +$84 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 08 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 08 $303 −$41 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 08 $166 −$75 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $270 +$74 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 08 $194 +$76 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $88 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 08 $95 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 08 $182 +$126 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 08 $35 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records