Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AE 0xae94…55bc sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$9
other 27% +$3
world 5% −$2
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +58.0% +43.0% 44% 44% +37.3%
≤30d 25 +45.5% +31.7% 36% 36% +11.5%
≤90d 42 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +1.2%
all 42 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 38% +1.2%
10% +0.7% 38% -8.5%
15% -9.0% 36% -17.3%
20% -17.9% 33% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 28¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+109%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$10 +170%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +473%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +383%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +503%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 +$7 +642%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 29 $1 $0 -48%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $3 +$7 +237%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $1 +$2 +226%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +73%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $2 +$2 +113%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Federico Valverde: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $2 +$1 +61%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 02 $2 +$1 +54%
Roony Bardghji: Anytime Goalscorer May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Fermín Lopez: Anytime Goalscorer May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Raphinha: Anytime Goalscorer May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under $0 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $4 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 57¢ $4 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 92¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 47¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $2 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.59 · official $13.59 · 76 history records