Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae95…cf88 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$5
politics 7% −$2
economics 6% $0
tech 5% −$5
culture 3% $0
other 3% −$1
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 30 -6.9% -15.7% 70% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage552d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? Apr 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Mar 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Feb 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Nov 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 03 $45 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 03 $50 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 08 $49 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 02 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 18 $48 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000.00 by March 31? Apr 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 06 $47 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 05 $48 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Susie Wiles be Trump's Chief of Staff on Jan 31? Dec 28 $10 $0 -1%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 19 $40 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $99 41d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $99 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $99 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $99 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $99 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $99 191d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? SELL No 99¢ $99 218d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 98¢ $98 223d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY No 3¢ $2 223d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 232d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $45 245d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $50 245d
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe BUY Yes 90¢ $6 245d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 245d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 258d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 99¢ $49 282d
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $49 304d
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? BUY No 98¢ $48 353d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? SELL No 99¢ $48 370d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 98¢ $48 381d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 406d
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 427d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $48 463d
Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? BUY No 100¢ $47 478d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $47 487d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $47 490d
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 496d
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 500d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 59 history records