Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae96…5894 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$9
politics 29% −$6
sports 12% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -4.5% -13.6% 7% 5% -9.9%
all 112 -2.8% -12.1% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage114d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $3 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $279 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $126 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $457 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $357 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $154 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $425 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $328 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $334 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $419 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $3 11d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $127 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $127 28d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $135 28d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 35d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 35d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 42d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 42d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 43d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $128 43d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $128 43d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3 47d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $9 47d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $39 48d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 48d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 48d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 48d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 48d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $153 50d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $163 51d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $163 51d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 51d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 51d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $148 52d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $148 52d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records