Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae96…db76 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,399 (+105%) realized +$1,399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%33W / 27L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day138.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+71.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +89.3% +71.2% 55% 55% +85.0%
≤30d 60 +89.3% +71.2% 55% 55% +85.0%
≤90d 60 +89.3% +71.2% 55% 55% +85.0%
all 60 +89.3% +71.2% 55% 55% +85.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.2% 55% +85.0%
10% ← realistic here +54.8% 55% +67.3%
15% +39.9% 55% +51.1%
20% +26.2% 55% +36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +105% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$18 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses33 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day138.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$68 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$68 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$57 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$51 +590%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$67 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$87 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$53 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$13 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$77 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$96 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$63 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$108 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$25 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$55 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$55 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$130 +438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$174 +476%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$26 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$30 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$24 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$50 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$21 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$86 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$47 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$105 +709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records