Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AE 0xae98…1aa3 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$209 (-44%) realized −$201 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$157per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-90.2%
≤30d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-90.2%
≤90d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-90.2%
all	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-90.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.6%	50%	-90.2%
10%	-29.1%	50%	-91.2%
15%	-36.0%	50%	-92.0%
20%	-42.3%	50%	-92.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -89% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$219 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.05 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$226

Realized−$201

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$157

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	73¢	70¢	$234	$226	−$8 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$15	+$11	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$221	−$219	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$221	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$147	11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$15	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$74	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.95 · official $225.95 (match) · 6 history records