Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae9d…f3e8 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$22
other 12% −$12
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 25% -15.8%
≤30d 61 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 28% -14.7%
≤90d 68 -9.8% -18.4% 28% 26% -16.6%
all 68 -9.8% -18.4% 28% 26% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 26% -16.6%
10% -26.2% 26% -24.6%
15% -33.3% 24% -31.9%
20% -39.9% 24% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$18 +50%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 −$12 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$27 +119%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$20 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $37 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $34 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $28 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $17 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records