Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaea3…fe61 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,301 (+10%) realized +$13,679 · open +$2,622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%84W / 70L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,070per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$2,771
14 days+$1,496
30 days+$5,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$7,335
world 33% +$6,267
sports 12% −$683
finance 10% +$2,939
other 2% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.1% -31.3% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 84 -18.5% -26.3% 48% 36% -2.0%
≤90d 154 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 38% -1.8%
all 154 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 38% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 38% -1.8%
10% -24.3% 23% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 14% -19.8%
20% -38.3% 10% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$161 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$15,512
Realized+$13,679
Unrealized+$2,622
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses84 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions5
Markets (closed)154 / 159
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,070
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 84¢ 97¢ $5,030 $5,863 +$833 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $4,560 $4,955 +$395 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 71¢ 95¢ $2,999 $4,031 +$1,031 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 36¢ 79¢ $300 $663 +$363 (+121%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 27¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $790 −$69 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1,870 +$243 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15,960 +$3,405 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,030 +$550 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $851 −$829 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $530 −$530 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $333 −$330 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5,478 −$1,226 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $825 +$122 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $1,246 +$224 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $348 −$50 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $833 +$167 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $896 +$475 +53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $520 +$460 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $2,100 +$840 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $124 +$76 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $200 −$123 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,013 +$813 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $384 +$213 +56%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $1,132 +$118 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $164 −$129 -78%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $330 −$70 -21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $337 −$102 -30%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $183 +$116 +64%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner May 28 $258 −$141 -55%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 28 $160 −$160 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 27 $251 +$442 +176%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 27 $720 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,170 +$328 +28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner May 27 $346 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 27 $7 +$13 +202%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Kaleido Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 26 $202 +$33 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Kaleido Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 26 $76 +$21 +28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $750 +$220 +29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1,000 +$98 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 24 $6,866 +$801 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $135 −$20 -15%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs Team Flash (BO3) - MPL Malaysi May 24 $9 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $1,000 +$162 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $680 +$300 +44%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner May 24 $541 +$125 +23%
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Close May 23 $0 $0 -40%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 23 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,862 +$138 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 74¢ $721 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 25¢ $119 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 23¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 28¢ $275 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 25¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 79¢ $774 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 71¢ $1,428 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $908 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 36¢ $313 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $188 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $2,113 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $880 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $145 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 62¢ $1,207 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 27¢ $27 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $47 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $48 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $132 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $891 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $19 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $418 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $3,701 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $1,284 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 30¢ $33 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,497 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,750 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,511.70 · official $15,488.56 (match) · 1727 history records