Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaea4…106e crypto 485 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,550 (-9%) realized −$1,543 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%193W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day232.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,840
7 days−$2,840
14 days−$3,397
30 days−$2,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$1,021
other 46% −$398
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -91.5% -92.3% 3% 3% -92.5%
≤30d 684 -41.3% -46.9% 28% 25% -18.0%
≤90d 684 -41.3% -46.9% 28% 25% -18.0%
all 684 -41.3% -46.9% 28% 25% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 25% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 20% -25.8%
15% -56.6% 16% -33.0%
20% -60.8% 13% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,093
Realized−$1,543
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses193 / 491
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)684 / 485
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day232.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 398 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$110 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$7 -1200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$18 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$6 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$6 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$30 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$14 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $903 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,093.49 · official $1,093.49 (match) · 3500 history records