Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaea5…6163 crypto 784 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27,375 (-10%) realized −$27,375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%547W / 262L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day133.2pace
Fees−$1,052est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$4,594
sports 40% −$4,973
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 32% -27.7%
≤30d 809 -6.8% -15.7% 68% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 809 -6.8% -15.7% 68% 39% -12.8%
all 809 -6.8% -15.7% 68% 39% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 39% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 22% -21.2%
15% -31.1% 13% -28.8%
20% -37.9% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$190 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27,375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses547 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,052
Open positions0
Markets (closed)809 / 784
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$341
Trades / day133.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 809 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$94 -214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$63 -663%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$115 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 −$244 -134175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $195 +$55 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$140 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $119 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$42 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$29 -46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $106 −$75 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 $0 -1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $148 −$40 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$94 -92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $510 −$34 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $250 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $19 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $89 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $5 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $82 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $200 26h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $119 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records