Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaea5…a370 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$419 (-38%) realized −$399 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$362
crypto 6% −$6
sports 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -41.0% -46.6% 22% 22% -42.1%
≤30d 23 -41.0% -46.6% 22% 22% -42.1%
≤90d 23 -41.0% -46.6% 22% 22% -42.1%
all 23 -41.0% -46.6% 22% 22% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 22% -42.1%
10% -51.8% 22% -47.7%
15% -56.4% 13% -52.7%
20% -60.7% 9% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$34 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $51 +$14 +27%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$8 -52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$33 +41%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 +$100 +650%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 +$38 +51%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$54 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 45¢ $65 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 70¢ $81 36h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 37h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 37h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $112 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $47 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $152 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $256 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.61 · official $25.98 · 33 history records