Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xaeb7…e5a4 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+6%) realized +$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$246
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$11
sports 21% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.1% +23.2% 62% 62% +30.8%
≤30d 10 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 10 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 50% -4.0%
all 10 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 50% -4.0%
10% -10.9% 50% -13.2%
15% -19.5% 50% -21.6%
20% -27.4% 50% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$51 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$5 -5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$79 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$85 +166%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$39 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $25 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 20h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $110 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 9d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $51 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.70 · official $98.70 (match) · 20 history records