Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaebe…2c1d crypto 901 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 190d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,121 (-4%) realized −$1,124 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%504W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,045
weather 12% −$42
sports 0% −$13
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.1% -14.1% 30% 23% -32.4%
≤30d 30 -5.1% -14.1% 30% 23% -32.4%
≤90d 385 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 30% -22.8%
all 895 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 40% -13.1%
10% -21.2% 24% -21.4%
15% -28.9% 14% -29.0%
20% -35.8% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,124
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses504 / 391
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)895 / 901
History coverage190d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 895 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 93¢ 93¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 83¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $1 +$10 +1005%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +480%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +127%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 10? Apr 10 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 10? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on April 10? Apr 10 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 09 $63 −$62 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 9? Apr 09 $15 +$15 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 9? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 8? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 8? Apr 09 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8? Apr 08 $19 +$46 +242%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 08 $16 +$13 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 08 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 08 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Apr 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 8? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Apr 08 $28 +$15 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 7? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 5¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a dr BUY 11¢ $2 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 41h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria SELL 0¢ $0 41h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 10¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.89 · official $48.83 (match) · 3500 history records