Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AE 0xaebf…4e6a sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$480 (+24%) realized +$470 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR79%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +79%

net ROI/market (all)+15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+27.7%	+15.5%	79%	79%	+14.1%
≤30d	14	+27.7%	+15.5%	79%	79%	+14.1%
≤90d	14	+27.7%	+15.5%	79%	79%	+14.1%
all	14	+27.7%	+15.5%	79%	79%	+14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.5%	79%	+14.1%
10%	+4.4%	71%	+3.2%
15%	-5.6%	71%	-6.8%
20%	-14.9%	50%	-15.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +51% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$78 vs −$128 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$174

Realized+$470

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage6d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A	ReThink	53¢	56¢	$106	$113	+$7 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs	INOX Division	63¢	66¢	$58	$61	+$3 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$77	−$76	-98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo	Jun 20	$132	+$68	+51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$121	+$89	+73%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi	Jun 19	$56	+$51	+90%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)	Jun 19	$168	+$157	+94%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro	Jun 18	$38	+$40	+104%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5)	Jun 18	$312	+$150	+48%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$199	−$199	-100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La	Jun 18	$108	−$108	-100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner	Jun 16	$63	+$25	+40%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner	Jun 16	$43	+$9	+22%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5)	Jun 15	$112	+$74	+67%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$126	+$54	+42%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5)	Jun 15	$243	+$136	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League	BUY INOX Division	63¢	$34	5m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League	BUY INOX Division	63¢	$24	8m
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A	BUY ReThink	53¢	$107	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	38¢	$77	13h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo	BUY FOKUS	66¢	$111	22h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo	BUY FOKUS	66¢	$22	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	57¢	$121	40h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi	BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports	52¢	$56	42h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)	BUY Grind Back	51¢	$52	2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)	BUY Grind Back	51¢	$52	2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)	BUY Grind Back	51¢	$52	2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)	BUY Grind Back	50¢	$13	2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro	BUY BakS eSports	49¢	$15	2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro	BUY BakS eSports	49¢	$23	2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner	BUY Ground Zero	66¢	$96	2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner	BUY Ground Zero	66¢	$3	2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner	BUY Ground Zero	67¢	$68	2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner	BUY Ground Zero	67¢	$32	2d
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5)	BUY FOKUS	67¢	$274	3d
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5)	BUY FOKUS	66¢	$38	3d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner	BUY Game Master	82¢	$30	4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner	BUY Game Master	82¢	$13	4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner	BUY Game Master	71¢	$63	4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La	BUY Saigon Warriors	50¢	$102	5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL Rooster	100¢	$180	5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La	BUY Saigon Warriors	66¢	$6	5d
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5)	SELL Ground Zero	100¢	$380	5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Rooster	70¢	$57	5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Rooster	70¢	$25	5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Rooster	70¢	$26	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.46 · official $171.71 · 49 history records