Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaec2…1262 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$406 (+16%) realized +$424 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$227
other 23% +$384
crypto 12% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 12 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +9.2%
≤90d 12 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +9.2%
all 12 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 50% +9.2%
10% -29.6% 50% -1.2%
15% -36.4% 50% -10.8%
20% -42.7% 50% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$87 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$668
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $686 $668 −$18 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $368 +$280 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$209 +69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $299 +$219 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $242 +$137 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$31 -62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $695 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $248 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $368 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $513 41h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $64 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $299 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $80 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $379 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $242 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $19 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $51 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $51 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667.87 · official $667.87 (match) · 21 history records