Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec3…22df other 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97,896 (-15%) realized −$91,527 · open −$6,369
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%288W / 130L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,385per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$56,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,480
7 days−$6,674
14 days−$7,086
30 days−$4,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$4,835
other 26% −$19,074
sports 14% −$66,098
politics 10% +$6,849
crypto 7% −$1,039
finance 7% +$12,403
weather 1% +$118
tech 0% +$39
economics 0% −$234
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 55% -30.0%
≤30d 73 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 355 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 33% -19.4%
all 418 +1.7% -8.0% 69% 32% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 32% -18.0%
10% -16.8% 22% -25.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 16% -33.0%
20% -32.2% 12% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$981 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$56,100
Realized−$91,527
Unrealized−$6,369
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses288 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions64
Markets (closed)418 / 473
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$1,385
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 70¢ $13,856 $12,081 −$1,775 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $5,386 $5,257 −$128 (-2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $5,126 $4,648 −$478 (-9%)
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 90¢ 86¢ $4,311 $4,121 −$189 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,700 $3,241 +$541 (+20%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $2,133 $2,245 +$112 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,840 $1,991 +$151 (+8%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $1,649 $1,765 +$117 (+7%)
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 95¢ 92¢ $1,522 $1,481 −$41 (-3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $2,002 $1,218 −$785 (-39%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $1,558 $1,145 −$413 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $1,083 −$117 (-10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 88¢ $948 $1,050 +$102 (+11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,011 +$11 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 66¢ 63¢ $1,000 $947 −$53 (-5%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 86¢ $1,000 $928 −$72 (-7%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 80¢ 80¢ $650 $648 −$2 (-0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $350 $625 +$275 (+79%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 45¢ 54¢ $500 $596 +$96 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $500 $593 +$93 (+19%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $400 $457 +$57 (+14%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $460 $450 −$10 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $400 $444 +$44 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $400 $443 +$43 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$192 +188%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $127 +$89 +70%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 +$57 +55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$29 -28%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $252 −$252 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $439 −$326 -74%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $890 −$890 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $6,246 −$5,659 -91%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 +$98 +97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $201 +$34 +17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $252 +$100 +40%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $503 +$138 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $252 +$115 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $903 +$119 +13%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 +$176 +79%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,947 −$1,947 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $10,065 +$1,435 +14%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,750 +$250 +14%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,997 +$56 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1,000 +$190 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $232 −$232 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? Jun 08 $396 −$390 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $253 +$31 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,232 +$496 +15%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$716 +1758%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $4,000 +$123 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $453 +$47 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,350 +$150 +6%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $442 +$4 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,370 +$65 +5%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $501 +$18 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,444 −$51 -2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 01 $43 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5,746 +$312 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $493 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $603 19m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 4h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $202 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $160 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 40¢ $102 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $127 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $74 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $201 30h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 66¢ $101 35h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4,416 35h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $403 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $252 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $153 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $252 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,572 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $903 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $204 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,100.25 · official $56,100.50 (match) · 3500 history records