trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 30% | 10% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 30% | 10% | -8.7% |
| all | 21 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 48% | 14% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 14% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 47¢ | 48¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 19 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 19 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 02 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 01 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 01 | $17 | +$3 | +16% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jul 15 | $1 | −$1 | -61% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? | Apr 04 | $14 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump and Elon say "COVID" during their Feb 18 interview? | Mar 20 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |