Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec7…c222 crypto 760 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,759 (-10%) realized −$2,759 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%430W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$0
14 days+$100
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,866
sports 6% +$217
other 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 40% -9.4%
≤30d 178 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 39% -14.6%
≤90d 752 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 47% -18.5%
all 752 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 47% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 47% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 35% -26.3%
15% -32.4% 26% -33.4%
20% -39.1% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses430 / 322
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)752 / 760
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 752 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $225 −$86 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$42 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$5 +8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $140 −$83 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$15 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $89 +$37 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$15 -44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $20 −$4 -19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $107 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$20 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$37 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$22 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $83 +$13 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$78 +118%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 +$59 +125%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 +$17 +54%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$50 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$70 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$5 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $38 +$186 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $142 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$13 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $57 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $57 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $140 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 16¢ $16 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $89 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 6¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $81 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a dr BUY 11¢ $29 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $30.74 · 3500 history records