Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

AE 0xaec8…c5d4 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$25 (+10%) realized +$25 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day11.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-42.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-36.7%	-42.7%	29%	29%	+5.0%
≤30d	21	-36.7%	-42.7%	29%	29%	+5.0%
≤90d	21	-36.7%	-42.7%	29%	29%	+5.0%
all	21	-36.7%	-42.7%	29%	29%	+5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.7%	29%	+5.0%
10%	-48.2%	29%	-5.1%
15%	-53.2%	29%	-14.2%
20%	-57.8%	29%	-22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -79% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 26

History coverage3d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day11.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	52¢	76¢	$20	$29	+$9 (+44%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	No	53¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+129%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	+$5	+105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$10	+$9	+93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$10	+101%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$15	+$30	+197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5	Jun 14	$41	+$43	+105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 13	$8	−$8	-99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$5	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$20	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	4h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	51¢	$10	13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$5	15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	25¢	$28	16h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	BUY BetBoom Team	48¢	$1	17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$1	17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY 9z	50¢	$1	17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	33¢	$15	22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	49¢	$10	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$5	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	63¢	$10	23h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	36h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	36h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	BUY Spurs	54¢	$8	39h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5	BUY No	48¢	$10	39h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5	BUY No	48¢	$30	39h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Haiti vs.	BUY	23¢	$2	39h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Haiti vs.	BUY	23¢	$14	39h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	12¢	$4	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	10¢	$9	2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.80 · official $28.80 (match) · 39 history records