Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec8…0f69 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$166 (-6%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days+$73
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$92
other 15% −$31
crypto 12% −$77
finance 9% −$37
sports 2% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.7% -17.4% 0% 0% -17.4%
≤30d 4 +17.9% +6.7% 50% 50% -21.1%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 45% -31.9%
all 27 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 33% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 33% -15.8%
10% -27.9% 22% -23.9%
15% -34.9% 22% -31.2%
20% -41.3% 15% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$42 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage112d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $188 −$16 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$46 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 +$44 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $180 −$137 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 21 $95 +$85 +89%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 16 $47 +$49 +105%
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 05 $172 −$166 -96%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 29 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Mar 27 $231 −$163 -71%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $53 −$6 -11%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $51 −$46 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 24 $88 +$6 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $126 +$60 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 13 $80 +$10 +12%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $25 −$12 -50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 12 $89 −$61 -69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 10 $95 +$15 +16%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 09 $349 −$22 -6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $433 +$214 +49%
Will Iran strike Syria in March? Mar 07 $24 −$8 -33%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? Mar 07 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March? Mar 07 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 07 $54 −$32 -60%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 06 $33 −$27 -82%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $56 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $120 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $120 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $132 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $132 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $86 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $86 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $42 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $180 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $95 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $96 68d
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 84d
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 86d
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 88d
Will Solana reach $100 in March? SELL Yes $14 88d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 89d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $47 89d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $53 90d
Will Solana reach $100 in March? SELL Yes 40¢ $54 90d
Will Solana reach $100 in March? BUY Yes 43¢ $231 90d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 47¢ $94 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 94¢ $134 96d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes $51 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.63 · official $106.63 (match) · 91 history records