Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaecc…5910 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-10%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$130
crypto 8% −$59
other 6% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 27% 27% -26.6%
≤30d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 27% 27% -26.6%
≤90d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 27% 27% -26.6%
all 15 -33.7% -40.0% 27% 27% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 27% -26.6%
10% -45.8% 27% -33.6%
15% -51.0% 27% -40.0%
20% -55.8% 13% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$50 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $166 −$3 -2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $82 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $183 −$181 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$166 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY 18¢ $80 23m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 51¢ $81 25m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $82 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 52¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $47 13h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 13h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $183 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 20h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 23¢ $61 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $266 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $101 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $166 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $166 44h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 46h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 46h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up $27 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $78.51 · 24 history records