Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaecc…097b world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$4
finance 19% $0
other 10% $0
sports 4% −$7
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 0% -10.5%
all 22 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 5% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 5% -12.1%
10% -24.0% 0% -20.5%
15% -31.3% 0% -28.2%
20% -38.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage484d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $20 −$3 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $9 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 24 $3 $0 -2%
UNLV vs. San José State Feb 25 $4 −$1 -14%
Blackhawks vs. Utah Feb 24 $4 $0 +0%
San José State vs. Utah State Feb 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 23 $4 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $10 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $6 7h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $33 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $18 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $14 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $9 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $40 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $39 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.40 · official $33.40 (match) · 62 history records