Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaecf…7061 other 17 markets active 18h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,913 (-20%) realized −$1,914 · open −$3,999
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,721per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$19,963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$1,937
14 days−$1,937
30 days−$1,937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$5,302
sports 8% −$633
tech 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.8% -43.7% 18% 18% -43.2%
≤30d 11 -37.8% -43.7% 18% 18% -43.2%
≤90d 12 -43.0% -48.4% 17% 17% -46.0%
all 12 -43.0% -48.4% 17% 17% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 17% -46.0%
10% -53.3% 17% -51.2%
15% -57.8% 17% -55.9%
20% -62.0% 17% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$320 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$19,963
Realized−$1,914
Unrealized−$3,999
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1,721
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9,726 $8,743 −$983 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10,374 $7,655 −$2,719 (-26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,392 $2,239 −$154 (-6%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $970 $808 −$161 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $518 +$18 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $649 −$639 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$344 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $504 −$487 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 −$167 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$83 -81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $306 +$717 +234%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $498 −$485 -97%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $459 −$113 -25%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,030 −$625 -61%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $649 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 96¢ $644 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $301 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9,938 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $11 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $504 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $670 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $172 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,024 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $498 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $306 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $346 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $408 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $404 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $459 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $999 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,025 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9,942 6d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? BUY Yes 7¢ $200 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,963.27 · official $19,963.27 (match) · 36 history records