Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaecf…a030
crypto · 136 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,062 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$895 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$246
Realized−$895
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 104
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)116 / 136
History coverage230d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days+$308
14 days+$287
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $190 $170 −$20 (-11%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+112%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 3? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on October 31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - November 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 +$64 +180%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $75 +$174 +231%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$17 +72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $21 +$30 +146%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $220 +$131 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $22 −$10 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $19 −$7 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 11 $29 −$13 -43%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 11 $52 −$28 -53%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $124 −$17 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $136 −$12 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 10 $64 +$2 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Solana reach $130 in February? Feb 19 $90 −$77 -86%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Feb 19 $19 −$14 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 19 $115 −$89 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 19 $107 −$45 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $532 −$353 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $314 −$191 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 17 $530 −$100 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15? Feb 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $15 +$63 +421%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 13 $16 +$19 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $48 +$228 +475%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3PM ET Feb 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 12 $16 −$15 -99%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in February? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 12 $19 +$34 +177%
Will Solana reach $100 February 9-15? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 4PM ET Feb 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 3PM ET Feb 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$1,243
other 16% −$71
sports 15% +$407
economics 0% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $28 25m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $37 30m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 54m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 54m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 57m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 26¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 32¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 1¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 10¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $350 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $23 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +15.5% +4.5% 38% 31% +22.0%
≤30d 17 +8.7% -1.6% 35% 29% +19.2%
≤90d 17 +8.7% -1.6% 35% 29% +19.2%
all 116 -63.6% -67.0% 10% 9% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.0% 9% -33.4%
10% -70.2% 9% -39.8%
15% -73.1% 9% -45.6%
20% -75.7% 9% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.55 · official $251.55 · 542 history records