Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xaed0…6f18 sports 1278 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1620 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$38,207 (+18%) realized +$16,623 · open +$21,584
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate95%636W / 36L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day1620.5pace
Fees−$2,125est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$67,990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$89,787
other 12% +$9,710
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1620 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+87.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 672 +107.6% +87.8% 95% 91% +21.5%
≤30d 672 +107.6% +87.8% 95% 91% +21.5%
≤90d 672 +107.6% +87.8% 95% 91% +21.5%
all 672 +107.6% +87.8% 95% 91% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1620.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +87.8% 91% +21.5%
10% ← realistic here +69.8% 85% +9.9%
15% +53.4% 74% -0.8%
20% +38.4% 61% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +108% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +112% → late +103% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$920 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$67,990
Realized+$16,623
Unrealized+$21,584
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses636 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2,125
Open positions2
Markets (closed)672 / 1278
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day1620.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 79¢ 100¢ $33,780 $42,752 +$8,971 (+27%)
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $12,626 $25,239 +$12,613 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5 Jun 29 $24,165 −$24,165 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics AND Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wing Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics AND New York Liberty vs. Golden St Jun 28 $52 +$24 +47%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners AND Minnesota Lynx vs. Jun 28 $205 +$49 +24%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Canada Jun 28 $86 +$35 +41%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners AND Will Canada win on Jun 28 $318 +$137 +43%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $211 +$187 +89%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Canada Jun 28 $22 +$15 +67%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $9 +$6 +66%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2 Jun 28 $152 +$143 +94%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 20 Jun 28 $41 −$39 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $76 +$198 +261%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $18 +$10 +54%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $102 +$197 +193%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $5 +$3 +59%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND South Afri Jun 28 $6 +$2 +34%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $1 +$2 +150%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $106 +$148 +140%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners AND Will Canada win on Jun 28 $170 +$109 +64%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa vs. Canada end Jun 28 $40 +$49 +123%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $202 +$166 +82%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 28 $2 +$5 +268%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $3 $0 +15%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $21 +$10 +48%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $65 +$101 +156%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $16 +$17 +105%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $114 +$78 +68%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O Jun 28 $56 +$117 +209%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $943 +$557 +59%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 202 Jun 28 $2 +$1 +53%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Morocco win Jun 28 $8 +$5 +58%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Can Jun 28 $1 +$1 +71%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0. Jun 28 $13 +$13 +102%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. C Jun 28 $40 +$22 +54%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Canada leading at halftime Jun 28 $45 +$25 +54%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06 Jun 28 $179 +$175 +98%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 28 $29 +$39 +137%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026- Jun 28 $10 +$9 +87%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 28 $4 +$4 +86%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $4 +$3 +74%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $203 +$100 +49%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND South Afri Jun 28 $154 +$98 +64%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Canada win on Jun 28 $15 +$13 +86%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $39 +$84 +213%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 28 $1 +$1 +130%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $28 +$39 +141%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $11 +$10 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca Jun 28 $72 +$74 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? A BUY 43¢ $4 18m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 41¢ $17 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $99 28m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 46¢ $28 29m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? AND Will Netherlands win on BUY 65¢ $46 38m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 48¢ $5 38m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 46¢ $0 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1. BUY 60¢ $7 39m
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries AND Will Brazil win on 202 BUY 53¢ $77 41m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06 BUY 52¢ $117 49m
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 48¢ $42 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $62 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 41¢ $7 54m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Jap BUY 10¢ $0 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $125 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will France win on 2026-06-3 BUY 43¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Japan: BUY 53¢ $226 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06 BUY 52¢ $217 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? AND BUY 53¢ $109 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 41¢ $87 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 67¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? AND BUY 53¢ $226 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 79¢ $33,993 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 42¢ $61 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY 41¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 38¢ $183 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $250 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 38¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 51¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67,990.26 · official $77,779.19 · 3500 history records