Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaed1…d0e9 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,634 (-72%) realized −$1,636 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$20
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,602
politics 21% $0
sports 8% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 40% -28.6%
≤30d 24 -33.2% -39.5% 29% 29% -41.7%
≤90d 31 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 32% -35.6%
all 36 -40.1% -45.8% 28% 28% -93.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 28% -93.4%
10% -51.0% 28% -94.0%
15% -55.7% 28% -94.6%
20% -60.0% 28% -95.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$66 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$1,636
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage223d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $351 $351 −$0 (-0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 64¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 58¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$6 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $8 +$5 +62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $6 +$7 +119%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$8 +170%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $6 +$7 +111%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 May 31 $5 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 30 $5 +$8 +178%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 May 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 26 $9 −$8 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $6 +$7 +117%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $8 +$5 +67%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 23 $8 +$5 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET Nov 16 $382 −$382 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 12PM ET Nov 16 $382 −$382 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 11AM ET Nov 16 $254 −$254 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 10AM ET Nov 16 $286 −$286 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9AM ET Nov 16 $287 −$287 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $8 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $129 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $7 25h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 4d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 4d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 11d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 74¢ $10 12d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $5 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $0 14d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $3 14d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $2 14d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $5 16d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $4 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 17d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 21d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 21d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 21d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 21d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.59 · official $366.59 (match) · 108 history records