Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaed4…68b8 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$18 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$38
sports 17% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.0% -27.6% 44% 39% -5.1%
≤30d 18 -20.0% -27.6% 44% 39% -5.1%
≤90d 18 -20.0% -27.6% 44% 39% -5.1%
all 18 -20.0% -27.6% 44% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 39% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -14.2%
15% -40.8% 28% -22.4%
20% -46.6% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4 +$2 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$7 -22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 +$37 +127%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 −$26 -96%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $117 +$28 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -95%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -21%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $54 +$25 +45%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 38¢ $6 11m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 20m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $3 24m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 33m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 37m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $24 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 12h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $15 12h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 17h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $14 19h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.12 · official $166.16 (match) · 55 history records