Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xaed7…baa3 sports 634 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-3%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%310W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$92
14 days−$8
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$215
crypto 14% −$67
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +18.1% +6.8% 58% 58% +6.0%
≤30d 81 +3.5% -6.3% 54% 54% -2.4%
≤90d 456 -15.5% -23.6% 45% 45% -20.0%
all 634 -7.8% -16.6% 49% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 48% -13.0%
10% -24.6% 47% -21.3%
15% -31.9% 45% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 40% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses310 / 324
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)634 / 634
History coverage163d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 634 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $20 +$15 +73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $6 +$3 +51%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $19 +$28 +145%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $24 +$16 +67%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $16 +$26 +158%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $15 +$12 +79%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $15 +$14 +89%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $9 +$14 +158%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $20 +$32 +158%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $17 +$15 +89%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $16 +$30 +184%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $11 +$9 +79%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $11 +$10 +89%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $20 +$9 +48%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$8 +75%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $17 +$29 +165%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 +$5 +73%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $14 +$8 +53%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $35 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 57¢ $20 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $9 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 66¢ $6 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $47 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $19 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $18 9h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $9 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $9 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $2 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $3 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $16 34h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $27 34h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $29 34h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 55¢ $15 37h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 52¢ $15 37h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 27¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 31¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 38¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 29¢ $8 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $53 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 38¢ $20 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $0 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $21 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $33 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 52¢ $17 3d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.29 · official $10.29 (match) · 1253 history records