Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaed7…1598 weather 193 markets active 4h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-12%) realized −$300 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%93W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$13
14 days+$33
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$14
other 17% +$22
crypto 16% −$207
weather 11% −$61
world 10% −$48
sports 9% −$3
economics 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 57% -4.6%
≤30d 53 +2.4% -7.3% 81% 28% -7.1%
≤90d 180 -16.9% -24.8% 52% 21% -20.8%
all 180 -16.9% -24.8% 52% 21% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 21% -20.8%
10% -32.0% 5% -28.4%
15% -38.6% 4% -35.3%
20% -44.6% 3% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses93 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)180 / 193
History coverage49d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 83¢ 83¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 73¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 15¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 54¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 89¢ 21¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-76%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +21%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 13 $41 −$13 -33%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 13 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 12 $40 +$3 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Nationalist Party win the most seats in the House of Representati May 31 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le May 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet May 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 24 $16 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Gachiakuta" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime May 23 $8 $0 +6%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $8 $0 +5%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $6 $0 +7%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election May 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 19 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $40 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $13 17h
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY No 84¢ $41 46h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $3 46h
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 83¢ $41 4d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $27 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL No 55¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 94¢ $43 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 81¢ $40 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 6d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? SELL No 99¢ $47 7d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? BUY No 83¢ $40 7d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? BUY No 89¢ $27 8d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 80¢ $41 8d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 88¢ $7 9d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 88¢ $40 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $50 13d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $40 13d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 95¢ $34 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 96¢ $35 14d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 15d
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.87 · official $259.18 (match) · 363 history records