Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xaed8…860c crypto 604 markets active 7h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate76%462W / 142L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$42
14 days+$3
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -8.4% -17.2% 75% 41% -16.9%
≤30d 604 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 604 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 45% -8.8%
all 604 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 45% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 45% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 26% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 16% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses462 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)604 / 604
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 604 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 1121 history records