Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaedb…91fd other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$821 (-32%) realized −$812 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$685
sports 13% −$120
crypto 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 10% -45.6%
≤30d 20 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 10% -45.6%
≤90d 20 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 10% -45.6%
all 20 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 10% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 10% -45.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 5% -50.8%
15% -54.7% 5% -55.5%
20% -59.1% 0% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$63 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$812
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $114 $110 −$4 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $86 $92 +$6 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $60 $51 −$8 (-14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 45¢ 40¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $165 +$21 +13%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $23 +$10 +46%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $266 −$100 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $200 −$10 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $38 −$18 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $640 −$563 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $332 +$30 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $33 −$9 -26%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $22 −$10 -44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $131 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $11 35m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $32 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 7h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 17¢ $2 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $2 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $17 9h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $10 9h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $14 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $20 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $148 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $99 18h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $12 20h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.22 · official $528.28 (match) · 159 history records