Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xaedd…ad5b sports 1254 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,897 (+9%) realized +$1,938 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%700W / 536L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$507
7 days−$166
14 days−$2,607
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$352
other 41% +$224
weather 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$8
world 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -18.8% -26.5% 42% 34% -18.3%
≤30d 988 +6.6% -3.6% 56% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 1236 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 46% -7.1%
all 1236 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 46% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 46% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 37% -16.0%
15% -18.5% 29% -24.1%
20% -26.5% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$1,938
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses700 / 536
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1236 / 1254
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Austria 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 44¢ 44¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Canas Alejandro Moro Canas 36¢ 34¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 Under 87¢ 52¢ $35 $21 −$14 (-41%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Iraq 24¢ 24¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 55¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+18%)
Will Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+56%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? No 52¢ 76¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+46%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-31? No 76¢ 50¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-2.5) Grêmio Novorizontino 97¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-31? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) Jun 22 $50 +$2 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $32 +$43 +134%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $42 +$72 +171%
Spread: IR Tanger (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 +$2 +18%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: OC Safi (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -97%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Seinajoen JK (-2.5) Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Derry City FC (-2.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Fortaleza EC (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bratislava (Doubles): Donski/Paulson vs Pokorny/Sachko Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 36¢ $9 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 36¢ $14 43m
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-2.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino 97¢ $9 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $50 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 24¢ $18 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $30 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $4 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) BUY Cabo Verde 97¢ $50 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $6 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 20h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 24¢ $18 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 38¢ $0 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $3 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $3 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $5 23h
Spread: OC Safi (-1.5) BUY OC Safi 15¢ $1 23h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 39¢ $3 24h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 39¢ $30 24h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Nigeria 15¢ $1 24h
Spread: IR Tanger (-1.5) BUY RCA Zemamra 84¢ $8 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $3 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 37¢ $9 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $14 26h
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 40¢ $4 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 41¢ $2 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 40¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.71 · official $216.73 (match) · 3500 history records