Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaee0…2be9 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+6%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%57W / 39L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$181
other 23% +$6
politics 7% +$1
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +46.9% +32.9% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤30d 12 +46.9% +32.9% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤90d 15 +32.1% +19.5% 73% 67% +16.6%
all 96 +8.3% -2.0% 59% 47% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 47% +0.3%
10% -11.4% 45% -9.3%
15% -19.9% 44% -18.0%
20% -27.8% 44% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses57 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage550d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$34 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$35 +112%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$15 -35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $3 +$4 +147%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 22 $1 $0 +16%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva May 10 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$13 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$20 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$16 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $28 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $66 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $48 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 218 history records