Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaee1…ee7a
other · 92 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$39 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 84
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage82d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 1 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$10
politics 26% −$1
economics 6% $0
sports 4% −$28
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 36h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -8.5% -17.2% 8% 3% -10.5%
all 91 -8.5% -17.2% 8% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -25.1% 3% -19.1%
15% -32.4% 3% -26.9%
20% -39.0% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $9.82 (match) · 237 history records