Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaee1…3cea world 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,446 (+8%) realized +$8,384 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%142W / 63L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$594
14 days+$4,006
30 days+$5,686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$7,925
politics 13% +$1,297
other 10% +$1,009
sports 6% −$2,655
economics 3% −$327
crypto 3% +$704
tech 0% +$77
culture 0% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.3% -2.9% 80% 60% -2.1%
≤30d 48 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 48% +4.0%
≤90d 94 -2.8% -12.1% 69% 41% -5.0%
all 205 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 42% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 42% -2.7%
10% -14.9% 23% -12.0%
15% -23.1% 11% -20.5%
20% -30.6% 6% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$654) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$166 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$1,774
Realized+$8,384
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses142 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage262d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $950 $956 +$6 (+1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 80¢ 87¢ $400 $435 +$35 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $362 $383 +$21 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $3,806 +$150 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 25 $308 +$44 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $1,753 +$238 +14%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,319 +$166 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 20 $112 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,360 +$131 +10%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,334 +$662 +50%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $374 +$125 +33%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,273 +$385 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5,540 +$794 +14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $391 −$31 -8%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $2,080 +$328 +16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $597 +$36 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $48 −$16 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $900 +$100 +11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $403 +$28 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,285 +$1,520 +118%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $811 +$64 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $264 −$260 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $453 −$450 -99%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $147 +$2 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 14 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $162 +$33 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $812 +$169 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $4,002 +$477 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $66 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,087 +$69 +6%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $189 −$17 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $69 −$12 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $430 +$55 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 +$32 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $744 +$122 +16%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $222 +$55 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $525 +$16 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $759 −$264 -35%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $981 +$104 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $599 +$99 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $898 +$1,216 +136%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 01 $768 −$13 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $784 +$181 +23%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $243 +$135 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $876 −$697 -80%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 28 $502 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $106 +$34 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $759 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $495 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $46 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $462 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $89 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $354 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $213 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $235 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $6 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $296 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $737 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $320 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $3 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $37 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $956 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,773.66 · official $1,773.66 (match) · 1966 history records