Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xaee7…05e9 sports 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 513d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 513d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,719 (+3%) realized +$4,982 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%167W / 104L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$520est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$14,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$339
14 days−$1,125
30 days+$1,994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$4,063
politics 27% −$930
other 22% −$3,125
crypto 12% +$1,747
world 7% +$168
tech 2% +$1,796
economics 1% +$78
weather 0% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.5% -43.5% 58% 17% -11.6%
≤30d 93 +2.5% -7.3% 61% 28% -6.4%
≤90d 185 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 24% -7.5%
all 271 +3.4% -6.4% 62% 26% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -7.3%
10% -15.4% 19% -16.1%
15% -23.6% 13% -24.2%
20% -31.1% 9% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$110 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$14,594
Realized+$4,982
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses167 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$520
Open positions50
Markets (closed)271 / 321
History coverage513d ⚠
Avg bet$572
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $5,470 $5,669 +$199 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 79¢ $4,071 $3,769 −$302 (-7%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 83¢ 84¢ $912 $922 +$10 (+1%)
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 87¢ 88¢ $839 $844 +$5 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 96¢ $707 $739 +$31 (+4%)
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $356 $396 +$39 (+11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $424 $316 −$108 (-25%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 8¢ 39¢ $37 $185 +$148 (+398%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 62¢ 64¢ $174 $181 +$7 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 74¢ 76¢ $163 $166 +$3 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $141 $144 +$2 (+2%)
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 28¢ 66¢ $50 $120 +$70 (+140%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $71 $118 +$46 (+65%)
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $90 $97 +$7 (+8%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 59¢ 96¢ $57 $93 +$35 (+62%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $99 $84 −$15 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 24¢ 38¢ $47 $76 +$29 (+61%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $82 $70 −$12 (-15%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $32 $40 +$9 (+29%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+62%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Karim Lopez be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $42 $0 +1%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $1,673 +$109 +6%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $265 +$29 +11%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 23 $314 −$308 -98%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 22 $50 +$13 +26%
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $11,856 +$46 +0%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 22 $93 −$69 -74%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,066 −$1,031 -97%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +37%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $41 +$59 +144%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $244 +$186 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $473 −$473 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $233 −$231 -99%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $1,883 +$770 +41%
Will Sebastian Aho win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +2%
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $386 +$6 +2%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $1,663 +$120 +7%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-3 be the exact series outco Jun 15 $288 −$164 -57%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 15 $336 −$97 -29%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $164 +$106 +65%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,899 +$2,175 +56%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3,226 +$934 +29%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3,668 +$426 +12%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,103 +$297 +27%
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $35 +$3 +7%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $229 +$11 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 14 $114 −$4 -4%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 13 $167 −$69 -41%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $113 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$11 +22%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $292 +$29 +10%
Will Golden Knights win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series o Jun 12 $58 +$22 +39%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $656 +$116 +18%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $88 +$185 +211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $478 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $97 4h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $32 4h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $44 5h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $274 6h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 15h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $9 16h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $23 17h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $57 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $20 20h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $39 24h
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 82¢ $284 38h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $709 40h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 87¢ $317 43h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $145 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $50 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $130 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $13 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $37 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $93 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $2 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $41 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,593.64 · official $14,592.07 (match) · 3500 history records