Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaee7…8834 weather 804 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-4%) realized −$378 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%405W / 601L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$193
14 days−$381
30 days−$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$693
crypto 28% +$62
world 3% +$16
sports 2% −$131
other 1% −$18
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -63.7% -67.2% 24% 14% -29.0%
≤30d 607 -41.7% -47.3% 38% 24% -25.3%
≤90d 1006 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -20.4%
all 1006 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 27% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 19% -28.0%
15% -49.2% 14% -35.0%
20% -54.1% 11% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses405 / 601
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1006 / 804
History coverage69d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1006 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? No 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? No 91¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 24? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? No 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? No 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 17? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on May 17? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 16? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 25? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 16? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on May 13 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C or below on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 21? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on May 12? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 25? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 25? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 20? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 21? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 21? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 16? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 17? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 13? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 13? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 15? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on May 12? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 16? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 13? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 17? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 27? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on May 13? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 60¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $1 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $13 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $4 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 74¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 50¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 12¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $1 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.28 · official $9.28 (match) · 2008 history records