Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaee8…1154 other 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11,504 (+14%) realized +$9,551 · open +$1,953
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate73%155W / 58L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day126.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$29,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$417
14 days+$746
30 days+$6,608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$4,080
tech 22% +$4,390
politics 20% −$1
crypto 4% +$64
sports 1% +$20
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 21% -5.2%
≤30d 213 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 22% +5.1%
≤90d 213 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 22% +5.1%
all 213 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 22% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 22% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 13% -5.0%
15% -21.7% 10% -14.1%
20% -29.4% 10% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$12 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.25 per $1 lost it wins $11.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$29,546
Realized+$9,551
Unrealized+$1,953
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses155 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions157
Markets (closed)213 / 367
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day126.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 157 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 46¢ 75¢ $1,712 $2,768 +$1,056 (+62%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,360 $2,414 +$54 (+2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,390 $1,395 +$5 (+0%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $1,131 $1,317 +$186 (+16%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,297 $1,298 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 67¢ 76¢ $1,009 $1,147 +$138 (+14%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $874 $1,099 +$225 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 75¢ 87¢ $895 $1,044 +$149 (+17%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 93¢ $865 $881 +$16 (+2%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $614 $837 +$223 (+36%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 99¢ $680 $693 +$14 (+2%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $609 $691 +$82 (+14%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $466 $668 +$202 (+43%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $1,081 $658 −$423 (-39%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 67¢ 91¢ $484 $655 +$171 (+35%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $877 $594 −$283 (-32%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 72¢ $633 $572 −$61 (-10%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 80¢ $488 $530 +$43 (+9%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 78¢ $495 $518 +$23 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $516 $506 −$10 (-2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 60¢ $220 $465 +$245 (+111%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $444 $450 +$6 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 99¢ $437 $445 +$8 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $506 $409 −$96 (-19%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $296 $393 +$97 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $23 −$1 -3%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 20 $112 +$7 +6%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $142 +$13 +9%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $147 +$4 +3%
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $144 +$4 +3%
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $91 +$2 +2%
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $442 −$22 -5%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $747 +$53 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $355 +$31 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $188 +$31 +16%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $147 +$5 +4%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $47 +$91 +192%
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $348 −$6 -2%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $87 +$5 +6%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -42%
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Jun 17 $110 +$13 +12%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $367 +$7 +2%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $495 +$9 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Rayan Cherki win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $71 +$3 +5%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $527 −$17 -3%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -83%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $1,644 +$105 +6%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $88 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 32m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 32m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 41m
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $16 53m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 53m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $15 53m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 53m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 53m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 53m
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 54m
Will Senegal be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group S SELL No 95¢ $62 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $390 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $136 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 1h
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $24 1h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $191 1h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 1h
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,546.38 · official $29,549.60 (match) · 3500 history records