Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaee8…6eeb
politics · 349 markets active 210d ago
0.0score
−$43,229 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43,224 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$43,224
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses111 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 349
History coverage198d
Avg bet$1,954
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$609
7 days−$609
14 days−$609
30 days−$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 54¢ 48¢ $41 $36 −$5 (-12%)
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira Phillips 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Gnangbo Kacou win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? No 1¢ 0¢ $231 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,193 $0 −$1,193 (-100%)
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1,425 $0 −$1,425 (-100%)
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Poirier 46¢ 0¢ $2,872 $0 −$2,872 (-100%)
Will Trump attend UFC 318? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuber Zellhuber 58¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? No 65¢ 0¢ $1,321 $0 −$1,321 (-100%)
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Simone Gbagbo win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $693 $0 −$693 (-100%)
Will any country leave NATO in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $369 $0 −$369 (-100%)
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tidjane Thiam win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Holland 56¢ 0¢ $1,319 $0 −$1,319 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will any country leave NATO in 2025? Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Justin Bieber rehab in 2025? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Jan 04 $419 −$419 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Jan 04 $733 −$699 -95%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 15 $693 −$693 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $800 −$106 -13%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $5,706 +$143 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 12 $1,028 −$812 -79%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 12 $216 +$21 +10%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Nov 10 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Nov 10 $508 +$195 +38%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $413 +$95 +23%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 05 $300 +$61 +20%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Aug 08 $200 +$5 +3%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 07 $53,643 −$739 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 07 $27,479 −$231 -1%
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Aug 06 $910 −$1,425 -157%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 8? Aug 06 $284 −$180 -63%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 06 $2,514 −$352 -14%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July? Aug 04 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July? Aug 04 $644 +$163 +25%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July? Aug 04 $605 +$395 +65%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? Aug 04 $1,232 +$677 +55%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? Aug 04 $4,521 +$2,292 +51%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? Jul 30 $4,214 −$1,913 -45%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? Jul 30 $1,479 −$1,479 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? Jul 27 $1,962 −$1,321 -67%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 25 $5,518 −$4,346 -79%
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Jul 20 $3,872 −$2,872 -74%
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Jul 20 $2,629 +$1,717 +65%
UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Jul 20 $4,480 −$1,801 -40%
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Jul 20 $352 +$480 +136%
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuber Jul 20 $1,300 −$1,200 -92%
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira Jul 20 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision? Jul 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
UFC 318: Will Poirier win by submission? Jul 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 318? Jul 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 19 $20,033 −$5,344 -27%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 18 $5,454 −$2,236 -41%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Jul 18 $3,746 +$1,708 +46%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 16 $8,935 +$2,120 +24%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Jul 15 $400 +$102 +26%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July? Jul 15 $440 +$44 +10%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July? Jul 15 $435 +$48 +11%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? Jul 15 $2,995 −$2,740 -92%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? Jul 15 $195 −$107 -55%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 14 $2,236 −$518 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 14 $12,291 −$2,910 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $2,444 −$2,444 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 30% −$33,500
other 27% +$6,585
tech 13% −$174
politics 11% −$12,712
world 9% +$5,229
economics 5% −$6,115
sports 4% −$2,753
culture 1% +$135
weather 0% +$684
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 38¢ $593 209d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $694 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $300 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $300 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? SELL Yes 85¢ $5,599 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5,469 211d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 7¢ $250 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $250 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $237 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? SELL Yes 69¢ $237 211d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $216 212d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? SELL Yes 2¢ $216 212d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 9¢ $778 213d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL Yes 7¢ $75 213d
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? SELL Yes 19¢ $703 213d
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? BUY Yes 14¢ $508 263d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 8¢ $508 272d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $361 280d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 73¢ $361 280d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 280d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 15¢ $80 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 308d
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? SELL No 84¢ $205 308d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 350 -34.6% -40.9% 32% 25% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.9% 25% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.5% 20% -23.9%
15% -51.7% 14% -31.2%
20% -56.4% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.19 · official $36.19 (match) · 3500 history records