trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 27 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 70% | 7% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 7% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 0% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -32.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $120 | $120 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 93¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? | Jun 23 | $147 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? | May 12 | $147 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? | Apr 02 | $146 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | Mar 23 | $146 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in January? | Feb 27 | $146 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 05 | $145 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 | Nov 18 | $145 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 03 | $143 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | Oct 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? | Oct 21 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Oct 21 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? | Oct 09 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? | Sep 15 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in July? | Aug 02 | $68 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Jul 02 | $60 | +$8 | +14% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 07 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? | May 06 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? | Apr 21 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? | Mar 08 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Feb 17 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? | Feb 10 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? | Feb 07 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Feb 01 | $58 | $0 | +1% |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | Jan 09 | $45 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Jan 02 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | Dec 27 | $55 | $0 | -1% |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | Dec 23 | $45 | +$8 | +18% |