Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaeed…462d crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$62 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%98W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$119
14 days−$112
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$77
sports 13% +$22
other 9% −$24
world 2% +$4
politics 2% −$2
weather 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -27.9% -34.7% 51% 38% -24.4%
≤30d 112 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 50% -14.5%
≤90d 151 -8.8% -17.5% 65% 51% -13.3%
all 151 -8.8% -17.5% 65% 51% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 51% -13.3%
10% -25.4% 32% -21.6%
15% -32.6% 22% -29.2%
20% -39.2% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses98 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 61¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $151 −$50 -33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $106 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.97 · official $15.97 (match) · 393 history records