Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaeed…f629 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+5%) realized +$207 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$78
14 days+$296
30 days+$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$592
other 5% −$237
culture 4% −$197
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.9% +4.9% 60% 60% +3.7%
≤30d 25 +18.3% +7.0% 60% 60% +6.2%
≤90d 48 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 52% -5.9%
all 48 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 52% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 52% -5.9%
10% -16.1% 52% -14.9%
15% -24.2% 52% -23.2%
20% -31.7% 50% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$85 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage580d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 57¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $153 +$205 +134%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $129 −$127 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $152 +$129 +85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $113 −$111 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$131 +129%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $124 +$91 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $101 +$86 +85%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 28 $51 +$44 +86%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 28 $34 −$3 -9%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 25 $102 +$142 +140%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $76 +$65 +86%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $51 +$36 +71%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $148 +$143 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 15 $189 −$187 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winner Apr 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $75 +$67 +90%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $26 +$17 +67%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 08 $50 +$70 +140%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs Apr 03 $75 +$55 +73%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $100 +$40 +40%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 01 $75 +$71 +94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 24 $75 +$67 +89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 22 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $75 +$61 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $202 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $51 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 39h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $101 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $153 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 52¢ $129 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 53¢ $152 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 45¢ $113 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 43¢ $102 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 49¢ $102 11d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 50¢ $102 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 58¢ $101 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 49¢ $102 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 57¢ $124 14d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 40¢ $102 16d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 41¢ $102 16d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 52¢ $101 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 41¢ $102 17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 56¢ $101 17d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX 54¢ $51 20d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX 53¢ $51 20d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY magic 53¢ $51 21d
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) SELL Nongshim Red Force 51¢ $31 21d
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Red Force 54¢ $34 21d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 41¢ $102 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $76 29d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 53¢ $101 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 58¢ $51 29d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 50¢ $148 31d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $51 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.95 · official $191.95 (match) · 89 history records