Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaeed…074b other 614 markets active 2h ago coverage 683d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 682d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,907 (+5%) realized +$5,949 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%317W / 281L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$2,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$360
7 days+$133
14 days+$293
30 days+$2,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$5,178
sports 8% +$2,076
culture 4% +$225
politics 4% −$1,180
world 1% −$247
crypto 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.3% +33.3% 83% 67% -2.3%
≤30d 42 +19.9% +8.5% 64% 55% +15.7%
≤90d 90 +26.3% +14.3% 57% 46% +17.6%
all 598 +7.4% -2.9% 53% 41% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 41% -4.8%
10% -12.2% 35% -13.9%
15% -20.6% 30% -22.2%
20% -28.4% 25% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$95 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

683d coverage
Net worth$2,080
Realized+$5,949
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses317 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions16
Markets (closed)598 / 614
History coverage683d ⚠
Avg bet$208
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 85¢ $521 $583 +$62 (+12%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 84¢ $220 $343 +$123 (+56%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 87¢ 94¢ $233 $253 +$20 (+9%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $213 $211 −$2 (-1%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 38¢ $255 $165 −$91 (-36%)
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 64¢ $66 $123 +$56 (+85%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 41¢ 42¢ $98 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 64¢ 77¢ $63 $76 +$13 (+20%)
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $117 $53 −$64 (-55%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 36¢ $82 $45 −$36 (-44%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $70 $37 −$34 (-48%)
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 92¢ $29 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 32¢ 14¢ $64 $27 −$37 (-58%)
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 31¢ $22 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 65¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 53¢ 2¢ $53 $2 −$51 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $286 +$297 +104%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $37 +$63 +170%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $25 +$25 +97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $681 +$82 +12%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $335 −$335 -100%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 24 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $140 +$38 +27%
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 +$122 +120%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 +$62 +238%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $802 +$86 +11%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $131 +$11 +8%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 09 $10 +$6 +66%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 09 $87 +$107 +123%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $456 +$112 +25%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $68 +$38 +56%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $75 +$41 +55%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$32 +37%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$106 +651%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $57 +$66 +116%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $152 +$70 +46%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $480 +$196 +41%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $379 +$307 +81%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $801 +$344 +43%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $813 +$85 +10%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $969 +$181 +19%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $1,047 +$185 +18%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $501 +$765 +153%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$44 -100%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $82 +$10 +12%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $236 +$38 +16%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $121 −$118 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $214 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $100 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $91 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $111 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $17 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $102 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $681 3d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 6d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 6d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 6d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $525 7d
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $82 7d
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $54 7d
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 7d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $57 7d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $62 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $140 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $26 15d
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Olise 53¢ $54 15d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 15d
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $27 15d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $259 15d
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $7 17d
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,080.30 · official $2,080.30 (match) · 3500 history records