Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaeee…4141 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$735 (-31%) realized −$769 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days−$88
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$43
sports 39% −$146
crypto 7% −$3
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% +9.5%
≤30d 43 +14.3% +3.4% 42% 42% -15.5%
≤90d 53 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 38% -16.8%
all 53 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 38% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 38% -16.8%
10% -14.1% 36% -24.7%
15% -22.4% 28% -32.0%
20% -30.0% 23% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$769
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 66
History coverage95d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 68¢ $25 $71 +$46 (+185%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$44 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will En Jun 27 $25 +$48 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$13 -29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$20 -78%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$92 +181%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$44 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 −$76 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $401 −$305 -76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +195%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $102 +$301 +294%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$39 +294%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$5 +70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$44 -87%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$24 +78%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$23 +429%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$32 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 28 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 28 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 27¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will En BUY 33¢ $25 32h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Sene BUY 14¢ $25 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 69¢ $100 36h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY 12¢ $40 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 47h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY 21¢ $25 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte BUY 5¢ $26 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will J BUY 15¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.19 · official $215.49 · 125 history records