Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xaeef…d7e8 sports 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-14%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$12
other 36% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -56.9% -61.0% 33% 33% -66.1%
≤30d 6 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 67% -24.1%
≤90d 6 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 67% -24.1%
all 6 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 67% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 67% -24.1%
10% -15.0% 67% -31.4%
15% -23.2% 33% -38.0%
20% -30.8% 33% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 43¢ $13 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $10 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 10¢ $5 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $15 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $10 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $5 11d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY Yes 78¢ $5 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY Yes 80¢ $5 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records