Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaef0…4806 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,741 (-6%) realized −$4,948 · open −$793
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 66L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$156
14 days−$296
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2,443
finance 20% −$921
sports 16% −$842
other 14% −$1,452
crypto 5% +$138
economics 1% −$123
politics 1% −$199
culture 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.8% -30.1% 20% 20% -28.1%
≤30d 18 -13.4% -21.7% 28% 17% -12.0%
≤90d 32 -7.5% -16.3% 22% 16% -17.1%
all 109 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 34% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 34% -14.7%
10% -25.9% 31% -22.8%
15% -33.0% 26% -30.3%
20% -39.6% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$739) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$204 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$2,028
Realized−$4,948
Unrealized−$793
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)109 / 115
History coverage125d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $2,167 $1,602 −$565 (-26%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $317 $239 −$79 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $63 $78 +$15 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $46 −$154 (-77%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $13 $5 −$9 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $28 −$28 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $101 −$55 -55%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $81 +$99 +122%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $410 −$92 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 22 $136 −$80 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 18 $1,497 −$176 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,882 +$35 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $599 −$592 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -17%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $479 −$45 -9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 10 $83 +$13 +16%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $150 −$49 -32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $513 +$784 +153%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $81 −$4 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 01 $105 −$11 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $104 +$6 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $743 −$203 -27%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 27 $314 −$28 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $27 +$52 +191%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $458 −$10 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $230 +$67 +29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $7,029 −$791 -11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $235 −$5 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $1,174 −$234 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2,619 −$391 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $7,677 −$118 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 12 $2,195 −$478 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 02 $126 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 23 $188 +$50 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $4,691 −$4 -0%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 23 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $350 +$180 +51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $412 +$243 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $166 +$75 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $64 +$202 +316%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $120 +$232 +194%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $48 +$72 +150%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 19 $7,966 −$411 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $59 −$13 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $594 −$594 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 17 $100 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $64 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $187 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $46 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $181 33h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $81 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 41h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $49 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $80 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 25¢ $103 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $80 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $87 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $56 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $208 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $238 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 9d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,027.68 · official $2,025.30 (match) · 649 history records