Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaef3…35b1
crypto · 383 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$546 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$546 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses215 / 168
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)383 / 383
History coverage44d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 383 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$347
14 days−$336
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Estral Esports 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Bushido Wildcats 80¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: New Meta vs Rising Gaming (BO3) - LJL Regular Season New Meta 30¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$15 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$336
sports 25% −$109
world 2% −$100
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -1.0% -10.4% 57% 57% -17.5%
≤30d 349 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% -16.6%
≤90d 383 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 55% -18.5%
all 383 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 55% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 55% -18.5%
10% -21.9% 51% -26.3%
15% -29.4% 45% -33.4%
20% -36.3% 36% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records