Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaef4…99d7 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+7%) realized +$179 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%53W / 25L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$29
14 days+$50
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$60
sports 26% +$203
politics 21% +$33
crypto 6% −$20
world 5% +$1
finance 3% +$1
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 40% -6.8%
≤30d 48 +8.1% -2.2% 71% 40% +0.1%
≤90d 74 +0.4% -9.1% 66% 38% -3.0%
all 78 +0.8% -8.8% 68% 37% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 37% -3.0%
10% -17.5% 32% -12.3%
15% -25.5% 27% -20.8%
20% -32.8% 24% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses53 / 25
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage122d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $51 +$47 +92%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$34 +168%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $162 +$21 +13%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $131 +$11 +8%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 02 $50 −$2 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $92 +$93 +102%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 +$31 +62%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $20 39h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $30 39h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $51 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $20 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.19 · official $296.19 (match) · 163 history records